Starnet Ruijie (002396) 2019 Interim Report Review: Revenue Growth Slightly Lower Than Expected Overseas 4G Business Impact

Starnet Ruijie (002396) 2019 Interim Report Review: Revenue Growth Slightly Lower Than Expected Overseas 4G Business Impact

Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report, with operating income of US $ 3.3 billion in the first half of the year, which was gradually decreasing5.

4%, slightly lower than expected; profit maximization1.

USD 500 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

5.7 billion, an increase of 34% in a year, in line with expectations.

Profit growth declined, the impact of changes in earnings on the net profit attributable to the mother in the first half of the year, the company’s revenue and profit growth declined, the return rate changed from positive to negative, and finally the net profit attributable to the mother realized growth.

Generally 南京桑拿网 speaking, the performance in the first half of the year is relatively small (generally less than 20%), and the expected performance is still to be verified.

Network terminals have grown rapidly, and communications products have declined. Revenue from enterprise-level network equipment in the main industry15.

US $ 700 million, an annual increase of 20%, and gross margin growth has remained stable; benefiting from the growth of network terminal products in the financial industry, network terminal business income5.

7 ‰, an increase of 47% in ten years, and gross profit margin increased by 3.

45pct; Affected by the decline in sales revenue of smart home gateway products and 4G products in the United States, communications products revenue6.

4 ‰, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, and gross profit margin increased by 6.

28pct; video information application income 8.

7 ‰, a 5% increase over ten years, and a 12% increase in gross profit margin.

24 points; other business income 4.

400 million, a year-on-year decrease of 41%.

Ruijie Networks / Shengteng / ViewEase grew steadily, and Ruijie Networks, a smart technology / Deming revenue that replaced the main enterprise-class network equipment, maintained steady growth, with revenue growth of 16%, which can be narrowed interchangeably; main cloud desktops and smart terminalsShengteng Information, revenue increased by 16%, net profit increased by 65%; Starnet, the main video information application business, developed steadily, revenue increased by 6%, net profit increased by 111%, K-meter users exceeded 85 million; smart technologyRevenue has improved, revenue has fallen by 25%, and net profit has increased by 115%. Due to the impact of trade frictions, the performance of Deming Communications, which is mainly engaged in overseas 4G products, has declined, and the revenue decline is estimated to be about 40%.

The network demand in the 5G era is expected to continue to increase. The company’s major product lines are expected to benefit from the 5G era expansion. Enterprise network equipment and terminals are expected to usher in a new round of upgrades. At the same time, the improvement of network performance is expected to develop smart communications, smart communities, and video information.And other relevant application scenarios in new business areas.

The company is expected to benefit from the demand for network equipment terminals and applications in the 5G era and maintain growth.

Downgrade to “Overweight” rating. Considering the impact of trade friction on overseas 4G business, downgrade 19?
The 21-year net profit forecast is from 7.



5 to 6.



70,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.



83 yuan, corresponding to PE23X / 18X / 15X, considering the improvement in the previous period, it is lowered to the “overweight” level.

Risk Warning: Trade Frictions Affect Overseas Business, Data Center Products Impact on Lower Gross Margin

Jidong Cement (000401): Northern cement leader can be lightly loaded and endogenous improvement can be expected

Jidong Cement (000401): Northern cement leader can be lightly loaded and endogenous improvement can be 南宁桑拿 expected

Jidong Cement: Pan Huabei Cement leader has entered a new stage of development.

Tangshan Jidong Cement Co., Ltd. is the leader in North China, the largest cement company in the North and the third in terms of production capacity in the country. From 2016 to 2019, the company implemented a strategic reorganization with the Jinyu Group.The market share increased from 26% to 51%. The market share of production capacity in North China jumped from 17% to 30%, and the control of the core profit area was significantly improved.

The supply and demand pattern in major regions is improving, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has entered a period of demand boom.

According to Digital Cement Network, according to the industry’s supplementary capacity planning in the next 2-3 years, we judge that there will be no new capacity in the region where the company is located in the next 2-3 years.The Xiong’an New District has entered a substantial construction phase, and the cement demand in Hebei is expected to maintain an increase of more than 10% in the next 2-3 years.

The regional pattern is stable, and the future prosperity is good.

Entering the battlefield lightly, the endogenous improvement space is large, and the ROE hub is expected to improve.

It will be extended. After 2015, the company will increase its provision for impairment, remove historical burdens, and have a more solid asset quality.

At the same time, the continued high prosperity of the cement industry has brought down the company’s asset-liability ratio and financial costs.

For companies in the target industry, the company’s sales expense ratio has the advantage, and the management expense ratio is the highest in the industry. It is mainly affected by repair costs and downtime losses. There is room for improvement in the future.

Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy rating”.

We expect the company’s EPS to be 2 in 2019-2021.



97 yuan / share, the corresponding PE estimates based on the latest closing price are 8 respectively.



8x, corresponding to PB estimates are 1.




If the company maintains a dividend rate of 36 in 2019-2021.

34% is unchanged. The current closing price corresponds to a dividend yield of 4 in 2019-2021.

4% / 5.

5% / 6.


With reference to the comparable company’s PB estimation level, taking into account the better regional prosperity, the company’s endogenous improvement room is large, the ROE center is moved upward, and the rate of change is reduced, giving the company 20 years1.

6 times PB, corresponding to a reasonable value of 24.

85 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminders: uncertain factors related to the progress of the control of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic; the decline in the growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment; the deterioration of the industry supply pattern; the company’s operational management risks.

CNOOC (601808) Tracking Report: The industry’s continued high prosperity and profit elasticity gradually released

CNOOC (601808) Tracking Report: The industry’s continued high prosperity and profit elasticity gradually released

Benefiting from the increase in CNOOC’s capital expenditures, all businesses have blossomed in full: The company’s main customers are its controlling shareholder, CNOOC. The company’s revenue from CNOOC in the first half of 2019 accounted for 80% of its revenue; CNOOC’s energy security strategy and 杭州桑拿 the rise in oil prices, driven by Capital expenditures in the first half of the year were 33.7 billion yuan, an increase of 60 per year.


Benefiting from the increase in CNOOC’s capital expenditures, the company’s revenue and profits have increased and rebounded significantly; in the first half of 2019, the company’s restructuring / production technology / ship leasing / physical prospecting business income increased by 49 respectively.

4% / 94.

8% / 15.

9% / 105.

3%; the company’s first three quarters of 2019 revenue increased by 55.

6% to US $ 21.3 billion, while net profit attributable to mothers has been continuously converted to profit 21 from the same period last year.

200 million yuan.

The daily rate of the platform is still low and the profitability is still flexible: the company’s rolling service business is an important factor affecting the company’s profitability.

The drilling service mainly relies on self-elevating and semi-submersible drilling platforms with heavy assets, and the platform utilization rate and daily rate significantly affect the profitability of the business.

The company currently operates a total of 52 drilling platforms, benefiting from the recovery in demand, and its calendar day utilization rate has fallen from 51 in the 2016 trough.

8% increased to 76 in the first half of this year.

Driven by the platform utilization rate and the improvement of technical service business, the company’s single quarter gross margins in the first three quarters were 11 respectively.

4% / 19.

7% / 24.

0%, and the net profit per quarter is 0.

5% / 12.

3% / 14.

7%, showing a significant increase.

The company’s profitability has recovered, but there is still much room for improvement.

The company’s average daily income for drilling platforms in the first half of this year was 8.

USD 70,000, still significantly lower than the 2014 figure of 17.

At a high point of $ 60,000, the daily rate of the drilling platform is still at historical lows.

With the gradual increase of the platform utilization rate, the daily rate is expected to enter the rising channel and drive the company’s profitability to another level.

Give “Buy” rating.

It is estimated that the company’s operating income for 2019-2021 will be 314 trillion, 398 trillion and 469 trillion respectively; the net profit attributable to the mother will be 28 respectively.

700 million, 43.

100 million, 56.

7 trillion; corresponding to the current sustainable, dynamic PE is 28, 19, 14 times.

Covered for the first time and given a “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: the risk of oil price falling due to the imbalance of global crude oil supply and demand; the growth of CNOOC’s capital expenditure is lower than expected; the risks of overseas business being affected by the political and economic environment.

SF Holdings (002352) Annual Report Review: Strategic Layout Expansion New Year’s Rapid Development Expected

SF Holdings (002352) Annual Report Review: Strategic Layout Expansion New Year’s Rapid Development Expected
Event: The company’s operating income in 2018 was 909.43 ppm, an increase of 27 in ten years.60%; net profit attributable to mother 45.5.6 billion, down 4 each year.57%; deduct non-net profit 34.8.4 billion, down 5 every year.92%. Business volume grows by 26 each year.77%, rapid growth of economic components.The number of reports, the company achieved the number of courier 38.5.9 billion votes, an increase of 26 in ten years.77%; average ticket income is 23.18 yuan, compared with 23 last year.14 yuan increased slightly.For express delivery volume, the company’s preliminary aging business income was 533.6 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.3%. Continuing to consolidate and enhance the competition in the sector to ensure long-term healthy and stable growth; revenue from the economy sector was 204.0 ppm, reporting that major companies continued to optimize and upgrade economic products, and the economic parts business reached 37.6%, an increase of 22 from 17 北京SPA会所 years.A significant increase of 6% is the main source of unit growth for the company.From the perspective of structured objects, the bulk income in 2018 was 425.0.94 million yuan, a growth rate of 19 in ten years.3% is slightly slower than the monthly growth of 31 customers.3%, the monthly settlement ratio is close to 50%, and the increase in the monthly settlement ratio will significantly improve the stability of the company’s business.The continuous optimization and upgrading of the company’s products and the structural segmentation will lead to the simultaneous improvement of multiple market segments, consolidating the leading position of the express delivery business. Invest in mergers and acquisitions to integrate advantageous resources and strategically deploy new businesses.The reporting company has increased its 杭州夜网论坛 strategic investment in non-courier business and has achieved initial results.The express business achieved operating income of 80.50,000 yuan, an increase of 83 in ten years.0%, acquired Xinbang Logistics and established the “Shunxin Jetta” express business independent brand, entered the market with the franchise system, and laid out the network foundation and capability advantages for the company’s rapid express business layout. Cold transportation and pharmaceutical business achieved operating income42.400 million, an increase of 84 in ten years.9%, the joint establishment of the new Xiahui with the US Xiahui Group can jointly expand industry customers, achieve effective interoperability, collaborative sharing.In addition, the company’s intra-city business achieved 10 billion operating income, an annual increase of 172.2%, international business achieved operating income of 26.30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 28.7%, plus the acquisition of the DHL supply chain business.The company’s new business accounted for 13 in 2017.71% increased to 18 in 2018.9%, providing a high-growth engine and business extension space for the company to grow from a benchmarking company for express delivery to an integrated logistics leader. Earnings forecast: We expect a profit of 57-20 in 2019-2021.4.7 billion, 69.2.7 billion and 83.2.9 billion yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE of 27.7, 22.9 and 19.Doubled, the company is a leading domestic integrated logistics company. At present, it is strategic to cultivate new business to open up future development space and maintain the “recommended” level. Risk reminder: The macroeconomic downturn lowers the quantity and price of aging parts, and the new business cultivation progress is less than expected.

February 14th, the daily limit has been known early: seven positive expectations for fermentation

February 14th, the daily limit has been known early: seven positive expectations for fermentation

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Sina Finance News February 13 news, there are seven major 四川耍耍网 benefits that may affect tomorrow’s stock market, specifically: Xilong Science: received sanitary licenses for disinfection product manufacturing enterprises Xilong Science (002584) announced on the evening of February 13, the company inRecently received the “Sanitary Permit for Disinfecting Product Manufacturing Enterprises” by the Guangdong Health and Health Commission, whose production category is liquid disinfectant.

  Easy to see shares: the company’s proposed change of control of the shares resume trading of Easy to see shares (600093) announced on the evening of February 13, the company’s shareholders Jiutian Holdings plans to change 2.

2 billion shares of the company (accounting for 18% of the company’s total share capital) were transferred to Industrial Investment Junyang; the company’s controlling shareholder, Dianzhong Group, plans to transfer its 8% of the company’s shares by publicly soliciting transferees.

Yunnan Industrial Investment will participate in the public solicitation of the Yunnan Central Group to transfer 8% of the company’s shares.

Industrial Investment Junyang is a holding subsidiary of Yunnan Industrial Investment.

If Yunnan Industrial Investment is determined as the transferee for public solicitation, it will become the controlling shareholder of the company, and the actual controller of the company will be changed to Yunnan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission.

Trading of the company’s shares will resume on February 14.

  Livzon Group: New Coronavirus IgM Antibody Detection Kit (Enzyme-linked Immunoassay) Enters National Emergency Approval Channel Livzon Group (000513) announced on the evening of the 13th that Livzon Reagent and the new coronavirus IgM developed by Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of SciencesAntibody detection reagents (colloidal gold method), the new coronavirus IgG antibody detection reagents (colloidal gold method) have passed the emergency approval defense of in vitro diagnostic reagents, and entered the fast-track approval channel on February 11.

The Ministry of Science and Technology emergency project jointly declared by the China Academy of Food and Drug Testing, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Livzon Reagent, the new coronavirus IgM antibody detection kit (Enzyme-linked Immunoassay) also entered the national emergency on February 11.Approval channel.
  Xinhua Pharmaceutical: Cefalexin capsules (0.

25 grams and 0.

125g) Through the evaluation of the consistency of generic drugs, Xinhua Pharmaceutical (000756) announced on the evening of February 13 that the company recently received cefalexin capsules (0.) approved and issued by the State Drug Administration.

25 grams and 0.

125g) “Approval for Supplementary Drug Application”, the product passed the consistency evaluation of the quality and efficacy of generic drugs.

This product is one of the key products of anti-infective drugs. It is mainly used to treat acute tonsillitis, angina, sinusitis, bronchitis, pneumonia and other respiratory infections caused by sensitive bacteria, otitis media, urinary tract infections and skin and soft tissue infections.
  Wutong Holdings: a wholly-owned subsidiary wins the bid for the construction bank’s SMS sending service Wutong Holdings (300292) announced on the evening of February 13 that, recently, the company’s wholly-owned subsidiary Guodu Interconnection participated in the construction bank’s short message and overseas SMS sending service projects.The bidding work has been completed. After strict review by the bid evaluation committee and confirmation by the bidder, Guodu Interconnect has been determined as the successful bidder.

If the successful bidding project can achieve a formal project contract and be successfully implemented, it will continue to consolidate the company’s leading position in the field of mobile information services for financial companies and have a positive impact on the company’s operating performance.

  China Tianyu: Overseas wholly-owned subsidiary won the bid 1.

500 million Euros solid waste treatment project China Teana (000035) announced on the evening of February 13. Recently, the company’s wholly-owned subsidiary Urbaser won the bid for the operation and maintenance of solid waste comprehensive treatment plant in Extremadura, Spain and the solid waste transportation project, Winning the bid amount of 998.

980,000 Euros / year, totaling 1.

500 million euros.

If the successful bidding project is finally signed and successfully carried out, it will provide a more complex foundation for the company to expand the broad environmental protection market overseas, further enhance the company’s competitive advantage in the environmental protection industry at home and abroad, and will also affect the company’s operating performance.Have a positive impact.

  Praco: Obtained a new veterinary drug registration certificate Praco (603566) announced on the evening of February 13 that after review by the Ministry of Agriculture, it approved the company and its subsidiary Luoyang Huizhong Biotechnology Co., Ltd. to jointly declare “rabbit viral hemorrhagic disease””, Pasteurella multocida, Clostridium perfringens (type A) triple inactivated vaccine (VP60 protein + SC0512 strain + LY strain)” are three new types of veterinary drugs.”New Veterinary Drug Registration Certificate.”

Shuanghui Development (000895): Performance is in line with expectations 2H pressure is still closely watching changes in import volume

Shuanghui Development (000895): Performance is in line with expectations 2H pressure is still closely watching changes in import volume

1H19 results are in line with our expected 1H19 results: revenue 254.

3 ‰, +7 for ten years.

67%; net profit attributable to mother 23.

8 ‰, at least -0.

16%, corresponding to a profit of 0.

72 yuan, of which 2Q single quarter income / net profit attributable to mother + half a year +15.

5% /-16.

6%, in line with our performance preview.

Development trend 2H19 slaughter volume and profit will still face pressure.

In the second quarter of 19th, the slaughter volume of the company was -11.

6%, +3 around 1H19.

According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, 1H19’s current stock of live pigs and fertile sows has been continuously reduced by more than 25%. We judge that the company has successfully obtained a share in the slaughter industry under the pressure of the swine fever epidemic in Africa and the rise in pig prices.The rate has improved.

2H19 pig prices are still facing challenges and growth pressures. We expect that the slaughter volume growth will increase, under pressure, and the sales of fresh frozen products will be the same (the variable is that if 2H can increase the import of pork or by-products, the sales growth pressure will be reduced).

2Q slaughter heads are all profitable 75.

5 yuan, although the chain is down but has not increased. At present, the price increase of upstream pigs and pork is different. We expect that the average profit of the 2H slaughter head is expected to stabilize at the normal level of about 50-70 yuan.

The profit margin of 2H19 meat products is expected to remain stable, and the uncertainty will break through in 2020.

The company’s meat products in the second quarter of 19 under the favorable price increase, the average price in the past +6.

5%, sales volume was affected by demand and price increases but fell only slightly2.

1%, we judge 重庆耍耍网 that 2H19 is accompanied by rapid growth in pig prices, and the company will hedge price pressure by continuing to raise prices.

The ton profit of 2Q meat products was 2,445 yuan, which was 16% higher than the price of pork in 2Q, and the cost of raw materials other than pork also increased. However, the company’s ton profit decreased only slightly by 2 from 1Q.

5%, mainly due to price increases and the company’s low-cost frozen meat reserves.

The reason for the 2Q ton profit falling 22% a few years ago was that 2Q18 was the quarter with the highest ton niche last year.

We expect that in 2H19, under the background of the rapid growth of pig prices, the company may digest the frozen meat inventory that was stored in the early stage (the amount of raw materials in the inventory at the end of 1H has increased from the beginning 西安耍耍网 of the year), price increases, product structure adjustments, and the widening gap between China and overseas prices.With the increase of imported frozen meat, the ton profit is still expected to remain stable. With the gradual decline of the base last year, the ton profit of meat products may not exceed 2Q.

However, due to the high probability that Chinese pig prices will run at a high level in 2020, and low-cost frozen meat reserves will be re-digested, if swine fever and high tariffs go hand in hand, the profit pressure on meat products may increase significantly compared to 19 years. We need to pay close attention to the company’s import of low-cost frozen meat.Weight changes.

Earnings forecasts and estimates We are cutting EPS4 for 2019/2020 due to the pressure of rapid growth in pig prices.

1% / 4.

7% to 1.


54 yuan.

The current routine corresponds to 15/14 times P / E in 19/20. According to the profit forecast adjustment, the target price is reduced by 4% to 28.

4 yuan, corresponding to 19/18 19/18 times P / E, 30% upside compared with the current one.

Maintain Outperform rating.

Risks include rising pig prices, African swine fever, and uncertainty about tariff changes.

Don’t miss the GEM 50 Index

Don’t miss the GEM 50 Index

Source: Financial aging mother-in-law Original title: Do n’t miss this highly flexible index since the National Day holiday, A shares have been in a row for 4 consecutive days. Yesterday, the market opened lower and lower.”The controversy is again exciting.

Optimists believe that the market has opened in the fourth quarter, and cautious people say there are more structural opportunities, but no matter what, technology stocks are in a good direction from many parties.

  And among the indexes representing technology stocks, one index suddenly became particularly prominent-in the previous staged market, the GEM 50 重庆耍耍网index’s staged elasticity and sharpness significantly surpassed the mainstream wide-base index.

  (Data source: Wind, as of September 9, 2019) Good liquidity, great flexibility, and blue chip . If there is any regret, it is probably that there are too few fund product options under the name of the index.

  However, this regret will soon be broken-Bank of Communications Schroder GEM 50 Index Fund (A: 007464, C 007465) launched on October 25, becoming another weapon for investors to grasp the market outlook.

  How sharp is the GEM 50 Index?

  Don’t look at the attitude that everyone appreciates the GEM 50. In fact, before 2018, it was a niche product. At that time, the only 50 ETF that had been created did not exceed 3 billion by the end of 2017.

After all, little is known about it.

  What’s so good about hitting the 50 Index?

  The first is the short-term sharpness: since this year, the GEM 50 index has been near the top of the core index in March, and the rate of rise has been stronger than the mainstream wide-base index.

  Select two time periods of this year to see at a glance: One is from February 1st to April 3rd this year. In the strong rebounding range at the beginning of this year, a 50 not only beats the Shanghai 50, the Shanghai 300, the Shenzhen 300, and the CSI 500.It also runs faster and farther than the Taurus Equity Fund Index-(Data source: Wind, the same below) The second is the rebound range from June 10 to September 9 this year, the return of the 50 index is called “FengHead alone, “captured 26.

49% interval income-This is obviously related to the way the GEM 50 is compiled: its proportion of high-tech innovative companies in Chinese stocks is higher, and its rebound ability is stronger.

Can also perform better in the rebound market.

  In essence, GEM 50’s excellence is also reflected in the value of long-term formulation.

  In the context of rejuvenating the country with science and technology and self-improvement, the country has already adjusted the pattern of fostering a new economy. Various ministries and commissions have repeatedly issued policy documents to support the “new economy” transformation and focus on promoting the development of strategic emerging industries.

With the implementation of support policies, the investment direction of the capital market is also changing, and innovative technology companies are increasingly favored by the market.

Under this policy background, the GEM 50 Index, represented by industries with high technological content such as pharmaceutical biology, information technology, and high-end industrial manufacturing, can be said to have promising prospects.

  This also determines that the market price of 50 will not prolong short-term rebound.

  From the perspective of market capitalization, the largest market capitalization among the 50 shares is more than 200 billion yuan, and the smallest market capitalization is 8 billion yuan. It is a collection of the most representative new economy leading companies on the GEM.

Leading companies not only have a profit volume of resistance, but also maintain a performance growth rate far exceeding that of wood blocks, possessing anti-risk capabilities and stable profitability.

In the long run, such companies have a higher chance of surviving in the waves.

  (Data source: Wind, as of August 31) From the perspective of price-earnings ratio, compared with the price-earnings ratio of more than 100 times that of science and technology board, GEM has obvious advantages in estimation and market maturity. Above the safety pad, the configuration value is outstanding.

  PE: PB: Why did you choose Bank of Communications 50?

  Knowing the GEM 50’s excellence, it’s time to understand why BOCOM Schroder’s GEM 50 Index Fund is worth choosing.

  First of all, the proposed fund manager of this new fund is Cai Yong, deputy director of quantitative investment and deputy director of diversified asset management of Bank of Communications Schroder Fund, a senior index manager with 12 years of securities investment experience.

The Bank of Communications Overseas China Internet (LOF) under his control returned 49 in 2017.

25%, ranking first among similar funds.

  The tracking error of the core index products managed by Cai Yi has always been the same. The yield of the Shenzhen 300-value ETF exceeds 40% this year: the fund manager with a deep understanding of the new economy and broad-based index will take the helm., Can be regarded as the Bank of China’s first 50 bonus factors.

  The first is Bank of Communications Schroder, a fund company.

The company’s outstanding performance in the field of equity investment includes new drivers for Bank of Communications consumption, Bank of Communications Alpha, new growth of Bank of Communications, Bank of Communications advantage industries, Bank of Communications regular payment of double interest balance, Bank of Communications theme optimization, Bank of Communications advanced manufacturing, Bank of Communications Global Select and Bank of Communications cycle returns C and other star products.

Whether it is a 3-year, 5-year or 7-year period, there are high-quality products that prove its investment strength and long-term vision.

  From the perspective of the citizens, Bank of Communications Schroder can allocate stable happiness to juniors, increase active equity for advanced investors to obtain adjusted higher returns, and provide high-end investors with “active +北京夜网 index””” Aggressive options.

From this perspective, choosing a product is behind a whole family of BOCOM products.

  Compete for 50 and welcome the fourth quarter. Are you ready?

Shanghai Airport (600009) Company Comments: Estimated More Alternative Attraction After Epidemic Scrubbing

Shanghai Airport (600009) Company Comments: Estimated More Alternative Attraction After Epidemic Scrubbing

The event was affected by the new pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan, and the market opened sharply after the holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 7 on February 3.


Shanghai airport fell 7.

51% to close at 63.

80 yuan, with a market value of 122.9 billion yuan.

The passenger flow in the first quarter is expected to be affected, and the single-quarter results may significantly carry out regular Spring Festival transportation data, which indicates that the passenger flow 9 days after the Spring Festival1.

4.1 billion person-times, a decline of 78 in the lunar calendar.

3%, including 6.67 million passenger trips after the civil aviation festival, a decrease of 60 at the beginning of the Lunar New Year.


The epidemic affects residents’ travel after the holiday. Although the rigid travel demand of reworked passengers after the Spring Festival is considered, the fact that the passenger flow is affected by the epidemic has gradually disappeared.

The revenue end of Shanghai Airport includes flight-related revenue and passenger-related revenue, both related to aircraft takeoffs and landings, and passenger airports. Taking into account the reduction in passenger traffic at the airport and the decline in passenger flow, the average value of related revenue will be reduced by the proportion of passenger flow.Performance or significant involvement.

After all, the impact of the epidemic was limited. With reference to the SARS epidemic, the impact or concentration was in one quarter when the 2003 SARS epidemic raged, civil aviation was the first to suffer, and the passenger flow suffered the worst in May 2003. The overall passenger 北京桑拿体验网 flow of the civil aviation was replaced.

9%, but the epidemic gradually subsided, and the passenger flow rebounded rapidly. In July 2003, the passenger flow became normal.

The demand for residents’ travel will not decrease, and the suppressed travel demand will quickly retreat after the epidemic subsides. Therefore, under the assumption that the epidemic has reached a high point in the short term and then gradually controlled, the impact on listed companies will mainly be in the first quarter of 2020.

The crisis is organic, and the outbreak is estimated to have been noticeably noticeable. We estimate that even in the first quarter of Shanghai Airport, the passenger flow decreased by 40%, and the breakeven was still achieved. If the epidemic recedes in the second quarter, the passenger flow will not be affected., The performance or proportion is expected to be slightly lower than 1 billion US dollars in the previous period, falling in the range of slightly more than 4 billion US dollars; 2021 performance is not affected by the epidemic, or still more than 6.5 billion US dollars.

Even based on the 2020-2021 net profit of 4 billion and 6.5 billion attributable to the mother, the current PE corresponding to the 2020-2021 performance is estimated to be 30.

7X, 18.


Earlier the market recognized Shanghai Airport as one of the conventional core assets, but what has been criticized is that it is estimated to have risen and it is difficult to accept, and it is estimated that the epidemic has gradually become attractive after the eradication of the epidemic.

Investment suggestion In the long run, the throughput of Shanghai Airport has increased, and residents ‘enthusiasm for leaving the country has not diminished. Tax-free sales will continue to rise, but because the impact of the current epidemic is still relatively uncertain, we will not modify the profit forecast for now.After all, the impact of the epidemic is temporary, and the profitability trend in 2021 will not change.

It is expected that the current PE value of Shanghai Airport corresponding to the expected performance in 2021 is less than 20 times, and gradually reaches the estimated attractiveness of substitution. Maintain the “Buy” rating and continue to recommend.

Risk reminders: Macroeconomic growth rate, epidemic expansion, tax-free sales less than expected, security accidents

Guojin Securities (600109) Quarterly Report Review: Steady Performance and Continuous and Standardized Development

Guojin Securities (600109) Quarterly Report Review: Steady Performance and Continuous and Standardized Development

The performance is steady and steady, with steady and standardized development. Net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 20198.

800 million, +23 a year.

5%; operating income 29.

0 ‰, +16 for ten years.

2%; EPS is 0.

29 yuan, expected ROE is 4.

42% (under an age).

Performance was basically in line with expectations.

Taken together, the performance of investment and investment banks is relatively excellent.

EPS0 is expected for 2019-2021.



43 yuan, BPS6.



50 yuan, maintain overweight rating, target price of 10.


83 yuan.

Proprietary investment strategies are prudent and prudent. Investment banks explore specialized paths. Asset management promotes transformation. Securities investment strictly controls investment risks.

The financial asset investment scale at the end of the third quarter was -9% higher than that at the end of the second quarter.

Fixed income investment actively seizes trading opportunities and pursues stable income.

Equity investments maintain a stable investment style and diversify and diversify risks.

Self-operated net income in the first three quarters of 20197.

980,000 yuan a year + 32%.

The investment banking business has consolidated the competitive advantages of key industries.

According to wind statistics, in the first three quarters, the IPO raised $ 1.5 billion, the refinancing scale was 10 billion (including deliverable bonds and convertible bonds), and the bond underwriting amount was 30.9 billion.

Net income of investment banks in the first three quarters4.

9.2 billion, previously + 66%.

The asset management business has continuously improved its investment management capabilities and risk control capabilities.

Actively promote the implementation of science 青岛夜网 and technology board funds, rescue funds, QDII and other businesses.

Net income from asset management in the first three quarters was zero.

71 ppm, ten years -33.


Brokers focus on “Retail Online + Wealth Institutions Offline”, credit business steadily developsIntelligent service capabilities, while optimizing branch office layout.

Commission treasure 5.

0 went online to optimize the functions of each line of products.

With regard to the offline business of wealth institutions, it has basically completed the transition to refined management and clear business objectives.

Brokers’ net income in the first three quarters of 20198.
700 million, ten years + 12%.
Credit business developed steadily.

At the end of Q3, the outstanding domestic fund balance was 83 trillion, which was +33 earlier.

1%; repurchase 45 trillion financial assets, earlier -17.


Interest rate net income for the first three quarters of 20195.

700 million, previously + 25%.

Recognizing the strategic positioning of fintech and its distinctive business characteristics, the company maintains its strategic positioning of fintech for fintech, promotes the technological upgrading and intelligence of traditional businesses, and has certain characteristics.

Combining the company’s three quarterly report performance and current policy and market environment, we forecast the company’s EPS0 in 2019-2021.



43 yuan (previous value was 0.



46 yuan), corresponding to 23, 21 and 20 times the PE.

Forecast BPS6 for 2019-2021.



50 yuan (previous value was 6.



55 yuan), the corresponding PB is 1.

26, 1.

20 and 1.

14 times, the average number of comparable companies in 2019 PBwind expected 1.

25 times, considering that the company’s Internet financial business has distinctive characteristics and a more stable operating performance, 2019PB1 is given.


6 times the target price of 10.

83 yuan to maintain the level of overweight.

Risk Warning: Business development is less than expected, market fluctuation risk

Aerospace Information (600271): Improved profitability helps boost non-profit growth

Aerospace Information (600271): Improved profitability helps boost non-profit growth
Matters: The company announced its 2018 annual report and realized revenue of 279 in real terms.4 billion, down 6 every year.10%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 16.1.8 billion, an annual increase of 3.95%, the net profit of non-attributed mothers was reduced by 15.9.4 billion, an annual increase of 16.01%, EPS is 0.87 yuan.The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4 for every 10 shares.4 yuan (including tax), no share bonus and no increase. Ping An’s point of view: Revenue has declined but profitability has increased significantly: According to Airline Annual Report, the company gradually realized revenue of 279 in 2018.400 million, down 6 every year.1%.By quarter, Q4 only confirmed 48 in a single season.34 ppm revenue was the reason for the decline in long-term revenue, which amount plus 47 during the same period last year.8%, and significantly lower than Q3 single quarter revenue 35.8%.From the experience point of view, since listing in 2003, only 2010Q4 single quarter revenue is slightly lower than 2010Q3.However, due to the combined gross profit margin since last year15.99% increased significantly to 20.42%, the comprehensive rate of return also declined, and increased research and development costs by 117.5%, deducting non-net profit still achieved 16.01% growth, the long-term profit performance is remarkable. In non-recurring gains and losses, investing in PetroChina Capital stocks results in large losses in changes in fair value3.4.8 billion US dollars, compared with about 1 last year.Gains from changes in fair value of 4 million; but the total investment income generated by the transfer of some equity of Shanghai Hangxin reached nearly 2.500 million US dollars, the proportion of government subsidies also increased sharply about 780 billion US dollars last year, which together form a certain hedge against the former’s unfavorable factors, and ultimately regulate the net profit attributable to the mother increased slightly.95%. The business structure improved and optimized, and the gross profit margin expansion of functional business increased: in terms of business, revenue from tax control business increased by 16.4%, financial business increased by 10.2%, while the Internet of Things business (network, software and system integration + IC card) dropped slightly by 4%, and channel sales business fell by 15.3%.Due to the tax control business, the financial business gross margin level is significantly higher than the Internet of Things business and channel sales. Therefore, the increase in the proportion of revenue in the previous part will itself increase the overall gross profit margin, and the optimization of business structure should be considered.In addition, as a result of the initiative of TravelSky, the gross profit levels of the four businesses have also been improved to varying degrees, further driving the improvement of the company’s comprehensive profitability. Multi-channel expansion of business scale and scale, with obvious performance: For example, in the membership business, the cumulative number of members exceeded 2.3 million, and gradually realized nearly 700 million US dollars in membership business income; the loan lending business realized approximately 17 billion yuan in loans, a doubling of growthIn the field of safety and reliability, nearly 40 projects have been won, and the bid winning rate and market share are in the forefront of the market. The Novo platform has over 10 million fast-voicing users, nearly 7 million promise users, and more than 50,000 accounting users.In addition, the company recently reached a strategic cooperation with Ali in the 北京夜生活网 fields of finance, taxation, government affairs, and corporate services. Based on the company’s cooperation with Tencent and, we believe that the value of Airline’s traffic entry based on tax control and e-government business deserves special attention. In recent yearsIt is expected to generate more profit points. Profit forecast and investment recommendations: The operating targets mentioned in the announcement of the resolutions of the board of directors and the annual report of the merging company (revenue of 40.1 billion in 2019 and 50 billion in 2020, which should include the contribution of mergers and acquisitions), excluding the profit and loss and potential changes in the fair value of China Petroleum CapitalFor asset transfer income and M & A contributions, we adjusted our previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 2019-2021 will be 346.27, 401.55, 458.0.6 billion, a previous growth rate of 23.9%, 16.0%, 14.1%; net profit attributable to mother is 19.50, 23.57, 28.11 trillion, a growth rate of 20 in ten years.5%, 20.9%, 19.2%; corresponding EPS is 1.05 (+0.06), 1.27 (+0.09), 1.51 (new) yuan, corresponding to the closing price on March 29 (27.93 yuan) with a P / E of 26.7x, 22.1x, 18.5 times.We are optimistic about the company’s tax control business barriers, data entry advantages and special system integration qualifications, e-ticketing, loan assistance, membership, security controllable, e-government and other businesses are expected to increase volume in the past 2-3 years, maintaining “recommended”grade. Risk reminders: 1) The price of tax control equipment is reduced or business qualifications are released.The current tax control equipment pricing is directly controlled by policies and requires corresponding business qualifications. If the pricing is further reduced or business qualifications are liberalized, it may affect the company’s profitability; 2) Credit supervision is too strict or the credit environment is deteriorating.The company’s loan assistance business mainly serves the financing of small and micro enterprises. Excessive credit supervision or deteriorating credit environment will affect financial institutions’ lending intentions and limit the expansion of loan assistance; 3) Insufficient execution power causes the promotion of membership-based services to fall short of expectations.Membership service promotion depends on good service capabilities and business promotion capabilities. If the execution ability is not in place, it will affect the progress of business promotion and drag down revenue growth; 4) Government IT construction exceeds expectations.The company’s Internet of Things business is mainly focused on the construction of information in the public domain, and the government is the customer. If the government’s IT construction exceeds expectations, it will directly affect the number and amount of orders.